The Blog of Robert Rosenkranz
Ian Bremmer, one of the most charismatic debaters to grace the IQ2US stage, has ignited a national debate about America’s role as a superpower. In his new book, Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World, he presents a nation in a state of identity crisis, and explores three alternative paths to help us find our way. Bremmer asks, which superpower would you choose: Indispensable America? Moneyball America? Or Independent America?
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Originally published on Forbes.com
On every mutual fund advertisement touting its track record is language mandated by the SEC to the effect that past performance does not guarantee future results. And the SEC is right; indeed there is little evidence in mutual fund performance statistics that past results have any predictive value at all.
But why is this the case? In almost every other field of human activity past performance does predict the future. A great violinist today is likely to be great tomorrow; similarly a heart surgeon, or a basketball player. Why is investment management one of the few spheres where yesterday doesn’t predict tomorrow? Answering this question is central to picking investment managers and strategies, so let me share some ideas.
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Boston marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev’s recent death sentence cast a focused spotlight on the use of the death penalty in the United States. Just last month, in the wake of his conviction, Intelligence Squared U.S. presented the debate “Abolish the Death Penalty.”
While there were many headlines leading up to the debate – botched executions and erroneous convictions – the Boston trial is perhaps the highest-profile death sentencing America has followed in decades. Proponents of the death penalty argued that a crime this heinous is precisely where the death penalty is suitable. They see the death penalty as both moral and just, and a reasonable expression of our societal sense of outrage. Time in prison, even a lifetime in prison, treats the most monstrous criminals no differently from others and hence fails to express our revulsion at the nature of their crimes.
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Illustration by Thomas James for Intelligence Squared U.S.
In his recent piece in The Daily Beast “Obama’s Iran Nuke Deal: Winners & Losers,” Les Gelb’s overview of the recent Iran negotiations argues that “the emerging arrangements on Iranian nuclear programs announced Thursday are a clear plus/plus for both sides. Only those who don’t want any deal see it otherwise.”
The implication is that only ideologues will oppose the agreement. But is the matter that clear?
Since 2006, Intelligence Squared U.S. has presented three debates that trace America’s relations with Iran and its nuclear ambitions: In 2006, “We Must Tolerate A Nuclear Iran,” in 2009 “Diplomacy With Iran Is Going Nowhere,” and in 2013 “Israel Can Live With A Nuclear Iran.” Just this week we announced a debate on the current negotiations: “Obama’s Iran Deal Is Good for America.”
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In this brilliant book, Walter Mischel surveys the current state of knowledge on mastery of self control. It is a profoundly optimistic book that argues that the ability to delay immediate gratification for the sake of future rewards is an acquirable cognitive skill.
This is hardly an obvious conclusion: the marshmallow test itself is a now famous experiment which presented pre-schoolers with a choice between a single marshmallow on demand, or two marshmallows if they could delay eating the first one for 20 minutes.
READ REMARKS....The test turned out to correlate with SAT scores, social and cognitive functioning, and sense of self worth.
